May 30, 2010

Stocks Need Europe End Game

A Fitch Ratings downgrade of Spain on Friday drove the three major U.S. stock indexes down 1 percent for the day. For some investors, Fitch's decision highlighted the need for the European Central Bank to come up with stronger response to the debt crisis before stocks will be able to rally.

The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

When Wall Street returns to work on Tuesday, the first wave of May U.S. economic data could bring what investors fear most: signs that shock waves from Europe are crossing the Atlantic. That would probably show up first in the two monthly ISM surveys, seen as an early read of the U.S. economy's pulse.

If those ISM reports on the manufacturing and services sectors are weak, it will come down to a strong May U.S. nonfarm payrolls number on Friday to help investors keep their faith in the U.S. recovery. The payrolls report is due on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).

Economists in a Reuters poll expect that the economy added 503,000 jobs in May.

"All of the macro data is going to be seen through the prism of Europe," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers in Newark, New Jersey. "You've had this huge problem in Europe. Is there any fallout from that on U.S. economic data?"

On Sunday, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou told a newspaper that Greece will not restructure its debt and will not need more cuts to achieve fiscal targets set in the emergency funding package it agreed with the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.

"Greece will not need additional measures, especially 'painful' measures. I see only one option ahead, delivering on our targets with consistency," Papaconstantinou told Sunday's Eleftherotypia newspaper.